A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
