Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Shift in Position and Settled Issues
In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.
David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.
While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.
An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in British politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an attempt to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
Observers within Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk and A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be prudent of him to recall the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
